Opinion

Paths to Victory Part II: Lean on me

To recap, we’ve gone over the states that vote a certain way.  Now, we’ll discuss the states that usually vote a particular way.

States in which a particular candidate shows a modest lead in the polls (a realclearpolitics.com average of five percent points or more) may be referred to as leaning states. Some of these leaning states can be seen as relatively reliable, such as New Jersey (15), Washington (11) and Iowa (7) for the Democrats and Montana (3) and North Dakota (3) for the Republicans.

Of these states, Iowa is incredibly interesting because George W. Bush actually won the state in 2004. During the Democratic primaries, Obama built up strong support in Iowa and used the state to springboard his candidacy. Obama has built on the strong anti-war sentiment in Iowa and formed a solid majority.

Other states are less reliable, but they are certainly leaning in a particular direction. These states will be strongly fought over and will be part of the focus of the campaign. Leaning states like Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), and Oregon (7) favor Obama, while Georgia (15), North Carolina (15), and Missouri (11) favor McCain.

After adding the amount of solid states to leaning states, Obama continues to hold a lead with 217 electoral votes compared to McCain’s 189 electoral votes.

Next, we will discuss the first five toss-up states.

September 17, 2008

Reporters

Thomas Prieto

Contributing Columnist


Around the Web
  • Miami Herald
  • UM News
  • HurricaneSports

It was a good day for the Miami Hurricanes basketball team. They moved up to No. 6 in the AP Top 25 ...

Erykah Davenport and Shaneese Bailey made key plays back-to-back late in the game and four players s ...

1. MARLINS: Jeter's Fish trade Gordon. Stanton next?: While others spend -- like the Angels to ...

A six-pack of Hurricanes notes on a Thursday: ▪ With the first ever early signing period just two we ...

University of Miami coach Mark Richt and Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst sat on a stage poolside at the ...

A scholarship created by retired Major League Baseball star Alex Rodriguez and born out of his love ...

New Multi-State Institute Focuses on Reducing Damage from Severe Storms ...

Daniela Deu was drawn to both architecture and urbanism, believes architecture can change communitie ...

Canes Basketball player development assistant will graduate with MSED in Sport Administation. ...

UOnline graduate will earn his M.S. in Health Informatics ...

Two Hurricanes receive AVCA All-America recognition for first time since 2014. ...

Coming off its first top-25 victory of the year, the Miami women's basketball team will play it ...

Hurricanes earn highest ranking since March 2013. ...

Walker IV recorded a career-high 26 points, seven rebounds in the win over Boston U. ...

The University of Miami women's basketball team earned an impressive 65-54 win over No. 20/23 K ...

TMH Twitter Feed
About TMH

The Miami Hurricane is the student newspaper of the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla. The newspaper is edited and produced by undergraduate students at UM and is published weekly in print on Tuesdays during the regular academic year.